fbpx

Foresight Frameworks and Tools

Part of our mission at the Future Today Institute is to develop a culture of foresight in every organization. For that reason, the Future Today Institute's research and tools are now open source and licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution- NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License

We have spent nearly two decades researching, modeling, testing and refining the Future Today Institute’s forecasting methodology and tools, which are used in hundreds of companies and government agencies and as part of college courses all around the world. We invite you to use them within your own organization.

 


STRATEGIC FRAMEWORK

The FTI Forecasting Methodology

Our futures forecasting methodology relies on quantitative and qualitative data, and it has seven steps. Our model alternates between flared and focused thinking.

Download this strategic thinking framework →



FORESIGHT PROCESS

FTI's Foresight Process Visualized

Learn more about how the Future Today Institute practices foresight, the types of data we use, and how one step feeds into the next.

Download this visualization →



PLANNING FRAMEWORK

How To Think About Time

To effectively plan for the future, organizations need to learn how to swim in different lanes simultaneously, and to think across a spectrum of time. For any given uncertainty about the future — whether that’s risk, opportunity or growth — leaders must think strategically about tactics, strategy, vision and systems-level change.

Read more about this foresight framework →



WORKSHOP TOOL

Assumptions vs Knowledge

Assumptions vs Knowledge, a scale we call AvK, is a simple but useful tool for checking your instinctive bias while doing futures work. It can be used any time an assertion is made to determine whether it’s based on fact or feeling. On one end of the spectrum are Assumptions (1), pure hunches that are not supported by any substantial data, and on the other is Knowledge (4), declarations made with ample evidence from multiple sources to back them up. With two intermediate steps—(limited evidence or insight but still significant uncertainty (2), and meaningful corroborating data or models but still some doubt (3)—the scale is a great way to keep sentimental bias from clouding your strategy.

Download this tool →



TRENDS

11 Macro Sources of Disruption

Technology does not evolve on its own, in a vacuum. Even the most forward-thinking innovators are still grounded in reality, tethered to other areas of society. Trends are subjected to and shaped by external forces. Just as it’s useful to organize our thinking along a chronological path through time zones, it’s important to categorize the various dimensions of our everyday life, with technology as the primary interconnector.

In order to forecast the future of anything, you must listen for signals across these 11 macro sources of change. Download this strategic thinking framework.

Download this strategic thinking framework →



TRENDS

CIPHER

To identify trends, we use CIPHER, which recognizes patterns from weak and strong signals. CIPHER acronym describes six indicators for trends: Contradictions, those examples that demonstrate opposing or incongruous forces at play simultaneously, Inflections, occurrences that mark a major turning point or establish a new paradigm, Practices, emerging behaviors that are becoming more pronounced or gaining in popularity, Hacks, inventive, unintended uses for tools, technologies and systems, Extremes, instances of technologies, functions or concepts being pushed to new limits that might change the nature of their use, and Rarities, highly unlikely or unexpected events and phenomena.

Download this trend identification tool →



CORE TOOLKIT

Axes of Uncertainty

Leaders often make common errors as they make strategic decisions about the future: they under-predict or over-predict change. The reason? Most of us find uncertainty uncomfortable, so we are reluctant to confront it. We can’t solve for future uncertainty, but we can prepare ourselves to think critically about signals and decisions — to understand all the dependencies we should consider that might impact the future. 

Download this management framework →



SCENARIOS

Scenario Archetypes

The Future Today Institute uses a variety of scenario archetypes and templates. We select the scenario type to match the purpose of the work, whether that is strategic (leaders needing to explore white spaces, create a long-term company vision, pursue M&A or make a big investment) or creative (storytelling for marketing campaigns, movie or TV scripts, exhibition design). The five archetypes in this toolkit represent five of the most common scenario types we develop.

Download this scenarios tool →



SCOPING FRAMEWORK

Identifying Key Stakeholders

Leaders and teams should work methodically to identify every possible stakeholder using proximity as a guide. When FTI works with organizations, we always begin with the following exercise.

Download this scoping framework →