Key Insight 

An autonomous vehicle is capable of sensing its environment and operating without human involvement while carrying some kind of cargo. 

What You Need To Know

The Tesla is well-known for its self-driving capabilities: It can park itself, drive on highways using auto-pilot, and drive through parking lots to pick up passengers. In 2020, several cars with autonomous features will come to market. Cars aren’t the only autonomous vehicles, though. Trucks and ships are being developed with assistive technologies, which will require less direct human involvement while operating vehicles.

Why It Matters

As the autonomous vehicle industry starts to mature, there are numerous business opportunities for both startups and established companies. However the commercial sector moved faster than regulators, and in early 2020 U.S. lawmakers proposed a new regulatory framework to govern self-driving vehicles. 

Deeper Dive

Levels of Automation

There are different levels of what’s considered “self-driving.” The Society of Automotive Engineers drafted a generally accepted definition of autonomous driving that goes from level zero to level five. The most advanced publicly available vehicles reached level two functionality, like Tesla’s Autopilot or Cadillac’s Super Cruise.

• Level Zero – These cars contain features that may momentarily take control over the vehicle, but they do not have sustained control of the car. This includes anti lock brakes and electronic stability control.
• Level 1 – This incorporates “hands-on or driver assistance,” in which the car works in conjunction with human control of the vehicle. Examples would be adaptive cruise control, where the car controls speed, or the use of “park assist” where the car controls steering. 
• Level 2 – This is “hands-off / partial automation” where the car controls acceleration, braking, and steering, but the human is required to intervene at any point. A good example is Tesla’s Autopilot feature, where the car follows lanes, accelerates to travel speed and decelerates for traffic and intersections.
• Level 3 – This would be “eyes-off / conditional automation,” where the driver is not required to pay attention to driving for the majority of the time. But the driver must be prepared to intervene at certain moments when prompted by the car. An example would be the Audi Traffic Jam Pilot, where the car takes full control of driving in slow-moving traffic on highways.
• Level 4 – “Mind-off / high automation” includes technology that allows the vehicle to need no input or oversight, but it’s restricted to specific roads or conditions. An example would be the Google Firefly Prototype, which did not have a steering wheel or pedal.
• Level 5 – “Steering wheel optional/full automation” means the car can operate anywhere and, in any conditions, that a human could without needing any human interaction. Waymo has a fleet of hybrid cars that it’s testing for Level 5 automation in Phoenix.

How Autonomous Vehicles “Talk” To Each Other

Autonomous vehicles rely on internal software and sensors to perform basic functions. However, in order to achieve Level 5 autonomy—where vehicles drive themselves, along with other vehicles across all of our roads, highways, alleys, bridges, and driveways—they’ll need to sense and communicate with each other. This will require additional work, and some questions still remain: Should vehicles talk to each other as part of a big, moving network? Or should vehicles communicate with infrastructure to send and receive all the data they need? (Or would there need to be some combination of the two?)

Vehicles will need to communicate with one another and to the road infrastructure to get real-time information on the road conditions and collaboration among vehicles. This will create new data streams to optimize road usage. Audi, Qualcomm and the Virginia Department of Transportation are testing cars that will interface with construction zones and traffic lights.

Multiple cars will travel together in groups of “platoons” in very short distances of each other, increasing the efficiency of communication between the vehicles and the roads on which they travel. The platoon approach is a frequent method of increasing the throughput on existing “dumb” highways—so vehicles communicate directly with one another. The platoon would require only one lead driver, or no driver, depending on the level of autonomation.

Waze’s user-generated traffic data is an example of collaborative sourcing of transport information. Cadillac’s Super Cruise semi-autonomous driving service relies on similar technology, using vehicles equipped with expensive LIDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) that scans the roadway ahead and provides accurate mapping of the road. Cars using the Super Cruise function that follow behind don’t need to have their own LIDAR equipment. 

Network protocols for vehicles and infrastructure communication must be developed, and it needs to be unfailingly reliable, fast, and secure. Vehicle communication protocols will likely intersect with 5G technology and node-based/mesh networks. Researchers are exploring Vehicular Ad Hoc Networks, which uses node-based rebroadcasting of information—a method that could potentially reduce the need for fixed infrastructure and could allow moving vehicles to take their network with them into areas with no connectivity. Gotenna uses similar local mesh networking to allow cell phone communication in areas without cell service.

Lawsuits and Restructuring 

The pace of advancement slowed when Waymo and Uber entered a heated lawsuit over trade secret infringement and because of limited employee mobility across companies. The companies settled the suit, and a general truce emerged—but the freedom of information and exchange of ideas has been reduced.

Things perked up in November 2019 when General Motors CEO Mary Barra boldly announced that GM would restructure the company and focus on its electric and autonomous vehicle programs. Nonetheless, GM-backed Cruise delayed the 2019 launch of its autonomous taxi service in San Francisco to focus on further testing, without citing a new launch date.

The Impact

Widespread adoption and use of autonomous vehicles promises fewer accidents, lower energy costs, optimized driving efficiency and reduced traffic congestion.

The Watchlist

Ace Hardware, Aerion, All Nippon Airlines, Ample, Audi, auto manufacturers, Avis, Baidu, Bird, BMW, Boom, Bosch, Citibike, Delphi Automotive Systems, Dominos, Driveri, Ecooltra, FAA, Fiat Chrysler, Ford, GE Aviation, General Motors, General Motors, General Motors, Get, Hertz, Honda, Hyundai, infrastructure development players and investment banks, International Maritime Organization, Ioscoot, Jaguar Land Rover, Japan Airlines, JD.com, Kepler.gl, Kia, King Long, Kongsberg, lime, Lockheed Martin, Lockheed Martin, Lyft, Marin Teknikk, Mazda, Mercedes Benz, Mitsubishi, Mobike, NASA, National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration, Nissan, Nissan, NVIDIA, Ofo, Otto, Peterbilt, Porsche, Postmates, public utility companies, Rolls-Royce, Sidewalk Labs, Skip, Softbank, Solar Roadways, Spin, Starsky Robotics, Strava Metro, Subaru, Tesla, TomTom, Toyota, Turo, U.S. Army, Uber, Via, Virgin Group, Vision Zero NYC, Volkswagen, Volkswagen, Volvo, VW, Waymo, Waze.

More Trends in this Section

• Cognitive Active Safety Features
• Electric Vehicles Cause Electricity Demand Spikes
• Transportation-as-a-Service
• Forced Updates To Firmware and Software
• Analog Fallbacks
• Exponential Growth in Autonomous Miles Data
• Autonomous Last Mile Logistics
• Mixed-Use Sidewalks and Drone Lanes
• Supersonic Flights
• Autonomous Ships